Covid-19 and the global business climate

From the Economist, this chart shows the estimated impact of covid-19 crisis on economic output by sector, using the data from the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

The International Labour Organisation estimates that industries in which the risk of lay-offs or furloughs is high employ 1.25bn people. The exit from lockdowns will be halting and precarious. And the calamity will have lasting effects, accelerating existing trends: the adoption of new technology; a rethinking of global supply chains; and the rise of well-connected oligopolies. Big companies are better placed not only to survive the crisis but to tap governments for support.

Our World in Data: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Visualisation

Our World in Data with its mission to build an infrastructure that makes research and data openly available and useful for all has been compiling research and data related with Coronavirus (COVID-19) with links to its sources. You can find more than 40 visualisations about COVID-19 in total on their website.

Most of our work focuses on established problems, for which we can refer to well-established research and data. COVID-19 is different. All data and research on the virus is preliminary; researchers are rapidly learning more about a new and evolving problem. It is certain that the research we present here will be revised in the future. But based on our mission we feel it is our role to present clearly what the current research and data tells us about this emerging problem and especially to provide an understanding of what can and cannot be said based on this available knowledge.

What is happening in Sweden?

Many countries in Europe have introduced a strict lockdown to stop the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19). For example, here in the UK, the Prime Minister told the country that we must stay at home and not allowed to meet friends and family members who do not live in the same household.

However, Sweden is an outlier. After a long winter, people are enjoying the warm weather outside their home (BBC). Families are enjoying a night out with cinema and dinner (The Times). It’s not surprising to see Sweden’s mortality rate is continuing to climb more quickly than that of its Nordic neighbours. Maija Kaartinen also pointed out about the rise of intensive care treatment due to Covid-19 in Sweden compare to Norway, Denmark, and Finland in Swedbank daily Coronavirus briefing report on 8 April 2020.

How coronavirus spread across the globe in the first 100 days?

In just 100 days, reports show that more than 1.5 million confirmed cases and more than 88,000 people have been killed by the coronavirus (Covid-19) across the globe. Seán Clarke, Antonio Voce, Pablo Gutiérrez and Frank Hulley-Jones visualised the first 100 days of this disease for the Guardians.

Raising the line while flattening the curve

Most people are familiar with flatten the curve, but to save more lives, the governments also must raise the capacity of their health care system in addition to social distancing and lockdown measurement.

UK, for example raised its capacity by opening the first of the government’s emergency field hospitals to treat coronavirus patients has opened in east London’s ExCel centre (more to come across the country), recruiting hundred of thousands of volunteers for the NHS, and calling some 20,000 former NHS workers back in the job.

Indonesia also raised its capacity by converting Wisma Atlet Kemayoran into emergency COVID-19 hospital, and opening Galang COVID-19 hospital.

Vox explains why the government, in this case the US, needs to raise the line.

Covid-19 deaths has switched from Asia to Europe and now the US

For Financial Times, Steven Bernard created this beautiful streamgraph and stacked column charts, showing how the focus of Covid-19 deaths has switched from Asia to Europe – and now the US. This visualisation is also part of free to read Financial Times virus tracker page.

Jump in Jakarta funerals raises fears of unreported coronavirus deaths

For Reuters, Tom Allard, Kanupriya Kapoor, Stanley Widianto raise fears of unreported coronavirus deaths in Indonesia as new data shows a spike in funerals in Jakarta in March 2020. It’s not surprising to hear that the Jakarta’s governor, Anies Baswedan, and some public health experts suspect the number of infections and deaths in Jakarta has been significantly under-reported due to one of the world’s lowest rates of testing.

Simulating an epidemic

3blue1brown (Grant Sanderson) share a few simulations that model how epidemic spread using SIR models that assume people are susceptible, infectious, or recovered.

Prof. Arief Yusuf: Economy can recover, but we can’t recover dead bodies

Prof. Arief Anshory Yusuf, my boss at SDGs Center Unpad and my undergraduate supervisor, calculated the impact of coronavirus on Indonesian economy over the next five years. His simulation with IndoTERM economic model shows that Indonesian economic growth in 2020 estimated to be 1.24%, this is 3.7% lower than forecast at 5.2%. You can find the discussion on his twitter account and now also on Pikiran Rakyat’s front page 31 March 2020 edition.

Break the chain

Check out The Spinoff cartoonist Toby Morris’ excellent illustration to understand how individual discipline can have an outsize impact in an article by Dr Siouxsie Wiles. By breaking these chains, we potentially stop hundreds or even thousands of people getting Covid-19.